I cannot believe have fast the time has gone. In 2018 I began on a journey to test the NFL prediction algorithm I invented by predicting games in advance. This means that I have now rated games in three consecutive NFL seasons with an approach that uniquely includes mental performance in the metric and the fourth season is soon upon us.
In these first three years, I have enjoyed some amazing success, capturing the 2019/2020 World Series of Handicapping title, cash and ring, placing third in the RX Forum Super Contest, and achieving the highest cover percentage over the past two seasons at the well respected Sports Watch Monitor, where I place my picks each week.
All in all, I have now predicted an impressive 366 games for a 212-154 record in picking sides against a known line. This equates to an amazing winning percentage of 57.92%. Anyone who knows handicapping in picking sides knows how good this is. When a line is given, that line more or less equates the teams in terms of what the public thinks. It refects big money and is a rough estimate of the concensus. It is not perfect but it does a pretty good job of making the teams equal, kind of like a handicap in golf. So if the Chiefs are supposed to win by 7 against the Browns, we say that the line is Chiefs -7, or Browns +7 and it means that the general expectation is that the Chiefs are 7 points better on that field.
Picking against the spread is very similar to flipping a coin if you don’t know what you are doing. You are going to eventually over time end of with 50% success which is horrible. It only would lose you money if you were a betting person. As I have written about extensively on the footballshrink.com site, the best handicappers in the world get around 52 or 53% against the spread. I have been fortunate to get 58% over almost 400 games, and that is why my picks have led to the highest winning percentage over two consecutive seasons at the Sports Watch Monitor.
I am doing something different to get these good results. I am measuring mental performance and then using it heavily in my algorithm. Read my book, The Mental Performance Index, and you will understand. Since nobody is measuring this vital but ignored aspect of football performance (and it applies in all sports too) I am stealing candy from a baby in having much better data than the rest of the handicapping world!
The point is not to beat my chest and tell the world that I have a crystal ball. I do not. Whenever I try to predict games based on my own hunches or instincts, I fall flat on my face. It is only when I make smart use of this prediction machine that I invented that I dominate! It is truly that good. Maybe some day I will franchise out this system to those who would like to profit using it. I do know that whoever has real money would be investing wisely. But for now I am content to slowly and surely build this success and continue to show the world how important the mental game is in football and all sports.
Join me this year in following my picks in this 4th NFL season in which I am making picks over at my Football Shrink website!