Week 6 was a humdrum 5-5, and so I am reducing the picks this week to only 7. Lowering the number of picks, or being slightly more selective in picking games, can lead to a higher overall percentage over time, and I am tired of two weeks in a row at .500. We did get the first win in week 7 when the Giants covered against the Eagles, so we are already 1-0 in week 7 with 6 games remaining. I sincerely hope we get back to a winning week and I think we will.
On the other hand, we have now gone 6 weeks in a row without a losing week and we are doing really well still, both this season and overall. Just go to the Picks link off the main site to see the success at: https://www.footballshrink.com/picks … and you will see precisely what I am talking about. We are around 59.5% success and this is over three years. I’m not sure any handicapper on the planet has had this level of success against a known line, picking sides, in the NFL.
We also moved from #4 to #3 in the world last week on the Sports Watch Monitor, indicating that last week was a bit difficult. Sometimes going 5-5 is great when everyone else is losing.
So who are we picking this week? You already know we were on the Giants to cover, and it worked. We also have the Panthers +7.5, Bears +6, 49ers +2.5, Steelers -1.5, Lions +2.5 and Jaguars +7.5. So we are kind of getting back to my longtime preference to pick underdogs rather than favorites with 5 dogs versus only 1 favorite this weekend. This is as much a statistical decision as it is the current games and analyses. The truth is that dogs cover slightly better than favorites over 40 years of games … and it is indeed significant, if not earth shattering. You need to know a lot more than just whether a team is favored or not, but this is a start. If you picked all dogs over 10,000 games you would be around 51-51.5% against the spread and if you picked favorites you would obtain the mirror reverse of that at 48.5 to 49%. It is just reality.
As you know, 50% success picking the team to cover is the kiss of death. It is the worst you can do over time. And as I have said many times, the best handicappers on the planet in NFL football picking sides are able to get close to 53%. That 3% is hard fought! And it shows you why our current record over 250 plus games of about 59.5% is so awesome.
Enjoy the games this weekend! Be sure to go to the main page for all the fun at https://www.footballshrink.com