I hope you are all enjoying football this year. Desite the covid fears, nutty schedule changes, and uncertainty in lineups and coaching situations, this is still the best spectator sport on the planet. The complexity of the schemes, the in-game adjustments and the astonishing athleticism are all part of the NFL eperience and I love it.
While I was initially a simple Miami Dolphins fan, raised and bred on the perfect season and 3 Super Bowls in a row, all before the Dan Marino second wind and Shula legacy, I later used my sports psychology skills to help NFL and college teams and players. They needed mental skills and they still do. I see players in my office, by phone and skype, and occasionally teams call me in to help with a speech or workshop. Mental performance matters, and that has been the theme I have stuck with since opening my private practice in 1999.
However, it is with my NFL predictions that I have had the most personal fun. I first developed a way to rate how well teams were performing mentally. I even wrote a book about this new index called the MPI, for Mental Performance Index. It was deady accurate, but it was not yet a prediction tool. That all changed in 2013, when I went on a 5 year mission to test and study 40 years of past NFL games, scores of statistics, and the conversion of my MPI mental measure into a tool that could be used for prediction.
By 2018, I had perfected it and it was time to test it. So I began a new website (https://www.footballshrink.com) and began recording all my picks. I have made over 250 picks since then and my record of success is an astounding 60%. I won the World Series of Handicapping last year and have been ranked #1 in the world over at the well respected Sports Watch Monitor. The main point of all this was to show how much the mental game matters, but it was and is still ignored in assessment and training. So my success is a way to validate what coaches often forget! If you want to win, hire a sports psychologist!!!
So that is the story. I am into the 3rd year of predicting games in advance, posting them on my site, and posting them on the Sports Watch Monitor. They keep track of it all, so there is no way I could fudge anything, and I would never do that anyway. And the results indeed show that my instincts to rate the mental game and then convert it over to a prediction tool were correct. We are likely the most successful means of predicting sides against a known line.
Time will tell if it continues, but after 250 games we are deadly accurate at 60% when the best handicappers in the world get 52 or 53% if they are legends. The truth is that 99% of the world will eventually get 50% success over many hundreds of games picking sides against a line. It is one of the hardest things to do in sports. It is no different from a coin flip by most. That is why I embrace the challenge. I can be great in this area of sports even if I cannot play for the LA Lakers, throw td passes in the NFL or bowl 300! It is my niche and I love it. I also can promote my practice by continually showing people that the mental game matters in a big big way.
Enjoy the games this week, and take a look at my picks at the offer page or the picks page at: