In Week 3 the Dogs Get Respect

We are finally into the data. Weeks 1 and 2 were lackluster at best and the reason is clear. There is no data. I predict that weeks 3-18 will be much better, and it hopefully starts today. I was able to use my two java programs finally with the data that has...

Week 2 is the Bounceback Week

I’ve always said that NFL weeks 1 and 2 are the hardest to predict, followed by the last week of the season. There is simply no good data in the first two weeks, and the last week is a joke as the good teams are resting starters for the playoffs and often could...

Welcome to Year 4 of MPI Testing!

I cannot believe have fast the time has gone. In 2018 I began on a journey to test the NFL prediction algorithm I invented by predicting games in advance. This means that I have now rated games in three consecutive NFL seasons with an approach that uniquely includes...

Looking at the Week One Picks!

Yesterday was 9/11, so let’s first take a brief moment of silence for the brave people who perished on that terrible day. OK, now that we have done that, let’s use the famous phrase from that day “LET’S ROLL” to move back to football and...

Ranking the Top NFL Handicappers

Picking the correct NFL team to beat the spread is a very challenging endeavor. Some call it the most difficult task in sports. Vegas is pretty good at making the teams equal with the line, and the vast majority of handicappers ultimately fall back to 50% success...

Lucky Week 7?

Week 6 was a humdrum 5-5, and so I am reducing the picks this week to only 7. Lowering the number of picks, or being slightly more selective in picking games, can lead to a higher overall percentage over time, and I am tired of two weeks in a row at .500. We did get...

Week 6 is Here and it is Getting Exciting

I hope you are all enjoying football this year. Desite the covid fears, nutty schedule changes, and uncertainty in lineups and coaching situations, this is still the best spectator sport on the planet. The complexity of the schemes, the in-game adjustments and the...

Wacky Week 4 in the NFL

The NFL was sailing along smoothly for 3 weeks, and then there was week 4. Bam, boom, smash, bang! Covid-19 reared its ugly head and now two games that were supposed to be played Sunday are disrupted. Breaking news, the Patriots/Chiefs game will be played now on...

Week 3 Scares me … but let’s roll!

I am really going out on a limb again this week with 9 picks! I did this last week and did not get burned, as we went 6-3 against the number, but how long can my forture last? The MPI metrics looked good again, so I went with it, rather than resorting to my own flawed...