Dr. John F. Murray

Dr. John F. Murray a licensed clinical and sport performance psychologist (aka the “Football Shrink,” the “Freud of Football” by the Washington Post and the author of “The Mental Performance Index: Ranking the Best Teams in Super Bowl History”) correctly forecast that the Philadelphia Eagles, led by an unproven quarterback and coach would handle pressure better than Tom Brady and the New England Patriots and beat the official spread in Super Bowl 52. As predicted, the Eagles executed better under pressure and defeated New England 41-33. In Super Bowl 53, the MPI metrics showed that the Patriots would cover against the Rams, and the MPI was right again. The MPI has now been right in 9 of 12 Super Bowls predicted, a 75% success against the spread!

“The King of Sports Brains” – Sports Illustrated

The Freud of Football” – Washington Post

The Football Shrink” – South Florida Sun Sentinel, Arizona Republic

One of the Major Psychologists in Sports” – Fox Sports

The MPI system has now defeated the official spread in 9 of 12 attempts (75% success) made publicly before Super Bowl games. The system has also held up in research looking at almost 10,000 past NFL games. The book Murray wrote on the MPI in 2011 and revised in 2013 showed overwhelming evidence that mental performance is the most important factor in Super Bowl success. The success has not been limited to the Super Bowl. It has worked exceptionally well in predicting 198 games in 2018 and 2019, the first years of official testing. 

The MPI measures how well a team does overall including on mental performance. Its power comes from the number of plays in a game (approximately 150) and the inclusion of mental factors in the scoring. While the MPI scores achieved in game ratings almost always predicts to game outcome, the numbers also indicate which teams are performing better, in precisely which specific areas, and regardless of which team won in the past. This gives coaches great insight before their upcoming games as they are able to more clearly see not only how their own team is performing, but to anticipate the fine differences, strengths and weaknesses. In the past few years, we have expanded this football analysis to the area of prediction after extensive statistical historical analysis.

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